Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon ..

The Tiger and the Dragon have reared their heads and it seems that the World has heard their growl. Consider this:

ASEAN GDP at $735b - Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos ..
SAFTA (SAARC Free Trade Agreement ) from 01-01-2006
RTIA (Indo-ASEAN Regional Trade and Investment) to touch $30b by 2007
China-ASEAN - FTA: Biggest Free Trade Zone in the World
Biennial East Asian Summit - China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN
CECA (Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Aggrement) with Indo-Sing
Indo-Sri, Ind-Thai, Indo-Nep FTAs in place
Asian Development Bank predicts Asian economy to grow by 7 %.

India's GDP to exceed France in 2020, Germany in 2025, Japan in 2035.
India-China trade - $10b
India-EU - $28b
India-US - $16b
India-ASEAN - $13b
Asian Highway being built to connect India, Thailand, Myanmar, Singapore, Malayasia, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam to facilitate land-based merchandise.

India's Strength:
1). Auto Components and assembly: Foreign companies are setting up shop here with exports expected to rise to $25b as per Mckinsey
2). Fabricated Metals and electrical components - SCM will play an impt role
3). Pharmacy: Drugs development cost at 60% in India and promise of $10b industry
4). Textiles: With Multi-Fibre Agreement terminated, the global textile industry is estimated at $1200b and India's to touch $40b by 2010 from current $14b. Can reach upto $80b.
5). Service Industry - Outsourcing hub for IT, Accounting and HR back-offices. This revolution is expected to be greater than China's manufacturing revolution.
6). Tourism: Incredible India can be one of the best Tourist Spots in the world

India's weakness:
1). Ports: Efficient and modernised ports are required to supply the goods at the shortest possible time
2). Airports: Require big, automated international airports to handle increasing global traffic
3). Roads: Multilane highways required to connect major cities in East(Jamshedpur-Kolkata-Bhubaneshwar), South(Bangalore-Chennai-Hydbad), North(Chandigarh-Delhi-Jaipur) and West(Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad)
4). Remove bureacracy in setting up business(88 days compared to 8 in Singa), hiring/firing workers(33 days to 17 days in China), enforcing contract(1yr to 50 days in Sing) and closing business (11.3 yrs to 0.7 yrs in Sing)

But all said and done, the crouching Tiger has come out of the bushel an ready to prowl over while the flame from the Dragon's head is visible the world over.

Comments

Anonymous said…
China's problems:

1). Electricity shortages
2). Transportation and infrastructure problems
3). East Coast Bias
4). Market regulation of domestic distribution by MNCs
5). Managerial and english speaking skills shortage
6). Corruption

India advantages:
1). More capital available to Indian entrepreneurs
2). India has good sensex - NSE and BSE from which companies can raise money
3).
12:23 pm
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